Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 21.646466 22.913300 24.250284 25.772433 27.464837 29.297547 31.444185
2026-01-25 19.525637 21.249993 23.160597 25.455760 28.167310 31.307307 35.277610
2026-02-01 18.133927 20.064431 22.267475 25.004610 28.368914 32.447020 37.894715
2026-02-08 16.781641 18.777507 21.101648 24.058251 27.797338 32.486090 39.020367
2026-02-15 16.366040 18.541939 21.133813 24.521312 28.950684 34.736695 43.238248
2026-02-22 15.916466 18.220261 21.017186 24.758195 29.794931 36.621439 47.162378
2026-03-01 15.142536 17.448661 20.282685 24.130646 29.412478 36.751981 48.484966
2026-03-08 14.040610 16.217923 18.905641 22.575307 27.648971 34.766190 46.297163
2026-03-15 13.724038 15.962870 18.762597 22.647865 28.135669 36.055088 49.421968
2026-03-22 13.474995 15.779110 18.697101 22.811974 28.749930 37.571181 53.118390
2026-03-29 13.143637 15.473286 18.453390 22.710398 28.961725 38.475292 55.875887
2026-04-05 12.913512 15.288489 18.359263 22.807118 29.464416 39.871277 59.731137
2026-04-12 12.580090 15.005513 18.186509 22.881057 30.093602 41.800974 65.569542
2026-04-19 12.125359 14.549351 17.764908 22.582983 30.146544 42.820924 69.998636
2026-04-26 11.694490 14.102105 17.326594 22.220532 30.046836 43.533634 73.933736
2026-05-03 11.163141 13.497543 16.640240 21.443693 29.204399 42.790066 74.310080
2026-05-10 11.036170 13.438572 16.717462 21.823998 30.306268 45.814608 84.914916
2026-05-17 10.862027 13.305300 16.678880 22.018085 31.104240 48.379467 95.535808
2026-05-24 10.493374 12.886964 16.208727 21.503308 30.611404 48.239650 98.211908
2026-05-31 9.920741 12.168024 15.278871 20.219743 28.673500 44.889505 89.988439
2026-06-07 9.762887 12.028334 15.192139 20.279871 29.152368 46.721207 99.077504
2026-06-14 9.635367 11.926405 15.155372 20.415774 29.776858 48.964947 110.866563
2026-06-21 9.455314 11.743574 14.990517 20.331671 29.982758 50.300140 120.214821